One of our forum regulars sent me this article he wrote on the current state of the industry, the console wars, and other topics revolving around Microsoft's status in the gaming universe. No editorial changes have been made and by posting it PlanetXbox360 is neither agreeing or disagreeing with the points made. The main purpose of this op-ed is to spark a professional discussion among internet readers and we would like to thank Devon for writing the piece. Now please enjoy "The ‘X’ Generation: A vision for the future of console technology -Why Microsoft stands to dominate and why Sony is stuck in the past."; and proceed
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The Past:
I’ll begin this article by giving you a brief insight into my own history with gaming technology and consoles. In fact, while we are quickly becoming an older breed, I do find it somewhat humbling that I belong to an aging group that bore witness (and paid attention) to the one of the first gaming consoles ever made: Atari’s ‘Pong’ for home. While the Magnavox Odyssey holds the trophy for the first gaming console emerging in 1972, Atari’s entry in 1975 gained particular notoriety because of its sleek design, inclusion of sound (beeping at its best) and the distinct honour of incorporating the first-ever integrated circuit in the console market. I can still recall the awe and intrigue it generated when my Uncle first powered up ‘Hockey mode’ on his giant 20” television. Never before (and never again) would I be so excited about a couple of moving blocks repelling a non-descript ball back and forth across a black-and-white screen.
With the progression of time, numerous entries appeared into what was then a very active and confusing console war. For me in particular, it is the Atari 2600 (2nd Generation) that stirs up the most memories followed by the Nintendo Entertainment System (3rd Generation) and Super Nintendo (4th Generation) along with its competitors. With every generation, the games were more intricate and colourful – this was now an expectation in the market as all of us (amazingly) became accustomed to the trend of ever-improving game systems; and so we demanded dramatic improvements for every new entry. In 1989, Atari changed the world of gaming with the introduction of the ‘Lynx’ ushering in the birth of hand-held consoles. Shortly afterward, Nintendo brought out a somewhat less-impressive Gameboy that most experts dismissed as obsolete before its time.
However, despite its technological advantages, the Gameboy defeated the Lynx over three key issues: price, battery life (cost to run) and ease of development. The Gameboy was far from being the ‘killer handheld’ that the world was anticipating, but it was inexpensive, had a great selection of games, had excellent battery life due to its low power consumption and featured a development kit that studios favoured. On the other hand, the Lynx suffered from a high price tag, woeful battery life and a host of proprietary development tools that required (among other things) an Amiga computer to compile. In the end, it was not the gamers themselves that decided on who would win this particular war. It was the developers looking for the best bang for their time investment and the parents looking for the better deal; a lesson for the future to those who would choose to pay attention.
Despite all the advances in technology up to this point, as a past hardcore PC gamer, I will admit that I became somewhat fed up with the console market altogether. With all of the effort that Nintendo, Atari and Sega were expelling to out-do each other, it was difficult to predict a winner and ultimately, I felt it was a huge gamble to spend your money on a console because you didn’t know if you’d be looking forward to years of gaming happiness or hundreds of dollars of kit sitting in your garage. It wasn’t just the console itself, but the games, the controllers, the extra bits of branded tech that only worked on the system it was designed for – it all added up and despite its ‘coolness’ factor, it was a lot of money. On the other hand, the PC gaming market was only just starting to heat up and had the advantage of a diverse and competitive manufacturing market. It didn’t matter what equipment you purchased provided it met the minimum requirements...and if it didn’t, you could always upgrade. What drove the PC gaming market in the early 90’s was the diversity of the gaming experience you could find. Console titles tended to slot into a number of pre-determined patterns such as 2D platformers, fantasy rpg’s and sports, but PC developers were challenging conventions all the time. It was PC gaming that gave us analogue controllers, online gaming, DirectX technology, the First Person Shooter the first Real-time Strategy, the 3D Adventure (Go Larry!) and the first sandbox environment. For a number of years, the PC gaming industry held these accolades exclusively and it was a good life to be a PC gamer. Console gaming had its place, certainly – but if you wanted to go to the next level, PC gaming was where it was at...until something unexpected happened.
The Present:
At its core, there is one distinct advantage a console holds over a PC: -static architecture-. Unlike PC games that are designed to run on a wide variety of configurations (with varying results), a console is pretty much set in stone and removes the guesswork for the developers. In essence, I would argue that developers prefer consoles because they can gauge the consumer experience more accurately and consistently than with the relatively unpredictable PC gaming market. Microsoft recognized this preference during the late nineties and decided it was time to enter the fray on their own. When the Xbox was first announced at the height of Sony’s market dominance, it was met with incredible scepticism. (...And by ‘scepticism’ I mean laughter, insults and pity) I couldn’t help but wonder myself what exactly Microsoft was thinking. Some even suggested that it was Microsoft’s arrogance or insanity shining through. After all, how could Microsoft hope or expect to compete in a Playstation-dominated market where veteran Sega was facing collapse and even former-heavyweight Nintendo was faltering? One word describes it best: Vision.
The Xbox program was revealed to the world in 1999 as the first ‘gaming/multimedia device’ and a team was assembled to design it. Among the team was Seamus Blackley, a seasoned PC gaming developer who had contributed to groundbreaking titles such as System Shock (Bioshock’s Grandfather) and Flight Unlimited. Blackley and his team committed themselves to creating a gaming system that exploited the advantages of DirectX and PC gaming technology while preserving the look and feel of a console. Rather than design their console from the ground up, Blackley’s team chose existing components in the PC market including a locked-down Windows OS, an Intel Celeron processor and a bog-standard hard drive (the first console to have one). It didn’t have a fancy processor such as Sony’s ‘Emotion Chip’ and there was nothing particular different or innovative about its design. Blackley’s team had come up with a very predictable, straightforward architecture that held little variance from its PC brethren. Once the Xbox was finally presented to the public in November in 2001, many critics dismissed it as nothing more than a fixed-spec ‘PC-in-a-box’ -and they were 100% right. That is exactly what the first Xbox was and it changed everything.
Unlike every console before it, the Xbox had a very small learning curve for developers. Microsoft, in their wisdom, had decided not to reinvent the wheel and instead created a device that used all the best bits of the PC market. In fact, the differences between the final Xbox and a similarly spec’d PC were so tiny, gaming studios from all over the world lined up to develop titles. Games already written for PC were easily ported to the DirectX-enabled Xbox. New titles were created without difficulty using common development tools for the DirectX graphics environment. True to his calling, Blackley had created a masterpiece that his industry colleagues flocked to in droves. Finally, here was a console that developers could spend their time focused on providing innovative software instead of jumping technology hurdles set out by proprietary architecture. By the conclusion of the Xbox’s brief 4-year product lifecycle, over 940 commercial titles had been released worldwide! Considering how short the product lifecycle for the Xbox was, the volume of titles generated was tremendously out of proportion. As a result, owners had a vast library of games at their disposal, not to mention the unique ability to watch DVD’s, listen to MP3’s and CD’s, view photos and connect to their PC using the Xbox’s inherent compatibility. For your average 2.4-child household, the Xbox was the ultimate all-in-one media box...and it would have been were it not overshadowed by a heavily dominated Playstation market. Unfortunately for Microsoft, The home electronics market just wasn’t ready for the media centre vision. With 24 million units sold and a red-ink loss of 4 Billion dollars U.S., the Xbox was considered a successful failure, but the lessons learned would not go unnoticed – and even Sony was starting to pay attention. The Xbox had proven a point about appealing to developers and gamers alike; even more so, the Xbox project had touched on an idea that was far more encompassing than the mere struggles of a gaming console market.
If we are to believe the hype, the original Xbox was actually a commercial experiment to see how far it could go with respect to technology and media convergence. It was also to serve as the primary launch platform for ‘Xbox Live’, an integrated online gamer environment managed and maintained by Microsoft. Unlike the PS2 that incorporated third-party servers strictly for online gaming, Microsoft focused on creating a community that would eventually become the all-inclusive, ever-growing media portal we now see. Whereas Sony’s thinking in consumer electronics is still very modular in terms of developing individual product lines and interconnecting them, Microsoft is striving to find ways to merge the various applications and services around us into an integrated service. In this sense, Microsoft views all devices as ‘windows’ to online integrated services. (pun intended) The current generation of Xbox, the Xbox 360, is designed with the same ideals as its predecessor: create a powerful and uncomplicated design through which many great things can be delivered. Drawing on their vast experience in software and online communities, Microsoft has already left the competition behind in terms of the development tools it provides to third-party studios, and the services it provides through Xbox Live and other Passport-based websites. With further investment and expansion of Xbox Live, XNA and partnerships with media providers such as BT Vision, Microsoft is only scratching the surface with its long-term strategy. At the conclusion of the Xbox 360 product lifecycle, Xbox Live will be much more than a gaming community. Based on current trends, Xbox Live is set to be the world’s first comprehensive online media superstore, providing instant access to games, music, movies, television programs, sports coverage and news through one convenient source.
The Future:
As you read this, you may be shaking your head in disagreement at the prospect that gaming consoles will eventually provide Mum with her daily dose of Desperate Housewives, or that Xbox Live will be the first place that Dad looks for the new Red Hot Chilli Peppers album. However, if you are shaking your head, it is because you’re not paying attention to the collective vision being conveyed by Microsoft from all sides. In an pivotal keynote speech made at CES 2006 over two years ago, Gates demonstrated a concept called the ‘Digital Lifestyle’ – the idea that the various devices we use would work together to serve our needs in any environment. It is a concept that implies the complete elimination of proprietary technology such as bulky optical disks, device-specific cartridges or locked-down media formats that only work on compatible players; instead, Gates’ concept speaks of the ability of data to flow freely from one device to the next using high-speed networking. In my opinion, this is an inevitable future: that the devices we use will focus on we want to do rather than what they should do. This is already becoming reality when we look at products such as the Iphone where the ‘phone’ functionality is but a fraction of what the device is capable of. It is with a certain sense of Irony that Apple is the first company to unleash a product that supports the vision touted by Microsoft, but beneath the surface, it is quite clear that even Apple hasn’t quite understood the true nature of the digital lifestyle concept.
In his CES 2006 speech, Bill Gates said: “…the software industry is stepping up and doing software that uses the Internet in new ways, [reaching] out to users, [creating] communities, [working] across devices, and building a platform to make that easy for those people to do…” When considering what Bill Gates actually means by ‘platform’, it is quite easy to visualise some sort of super-device that does everything and anything – but in fact, Gates is referring to an integrated collection of networks, devices and software. The idea that all devices can communicate with each other be it a phone, a gaming console, a personal computer, a motor vehicle or even a refrigerator. Devices will share data in formats that are common to all regardless of brand, function or location. No longer restricted to one primary purpose, all devices must provide the maximum functionality regardless of where and how they are used. Imagine a fridge that also runs a database for your shopping list, surfs the net to buy food online and can stream a mp3 while you’re cooking in the kitchen. Imagine a mobile phone that plays any game you desire, including music, movies and books. Imagine a gaming console that is now the central hub binding all of these capabilities together for all of the devices in your home; It holds all of the games, music, movies and data you have purchased with a single user account and allows you to stream your content to any device you log in to. Getting to the point, I believe console gaming will be alive and well years from now – but the idea of a ‘gaming console’ will fade away to be replaced by ‘consoles capable of gaming.’ Does this mean we will be playing ‘Gears of War 5’ on our refrigerator? –Probably not, but there’s no reason to think that we shouldn’t or can’t simply because a fridge is traditionally used to cool food. More likely, what we will see is the ability for the refrigerator to relay a Live Messenger voice call so that you can chat with your mates while you’re eating your breakfast – or display a recipe from the Internet while you’re cooking Sunday dinner.
This future is much closer than you think. The technology to accomplish all of these wonderful things is already available; it is the ‘platform’ that Gates speaks of in his keynote speech that is emerging. It is the platform that will change the world and become the standard for all companies willing to participate, and I believe that platform is Microsoft ‘Live.’ As it grows, the MSN Live network continues to add more partners, suppliers and services for its users. For example, my passport account allows me to purchase a game or film from Xbox Live, read email from my hotmail account, publish a blog to my own homepage, access my Internet drive, manage my licenses for Office 2007 and make a video web call to my nephew in Canada. It is this integration of services that weighed heavily in my decision to purchase an Xbox 360 as it allowed me to add console gaming to my experience using my existing passport account. In essence, my Xbox 360 joins the fold of devices using the ‘Live’ service that I am already accustomed to. I have access to all sorts of things from a variety of providers and will shortly be able to purchase televised events on demand. Using my passport account is extremely convenient – and I believe that convenience will become more popular and powerful day-by-day.
Microsoft has recently filed a patent for a ‘gaming hub,’ which has driven a lot of speculation as to exactly ‘what’ the next Xbox will be. If you follow the clues and reflect on the vision that Bill Gates has already conveyed, it’s possible that the next generation of Xbox will see the first real step into a fully integrated digital experience. The need for optical discs and memory cards will be significantly diminished as all of our media will be purchased online and downloaded/streamed through a high-speed connection. All of our licenses will be registered to our Live/Passport account, meaning that anywhere we go, we have instant access to all of our media and games on any device we use simply by signing into the ‘Live’ service. As the telecommunications industry grudgingly catches up to our speed requirements, the reality of media-on-demand comes into play and the notion purchasing a bulky, scratch-prone, non-copy-able optical disc based on a 1984 design will become completely ludicrous. At most, what we will see are high-capacity versions of Sandisk/Toshiba SD Ram: the currently most-recognized standard for flash memory. The ability to copy media will always be there – it is the license embedded in the media that will become relevant. Once you log into the device you are using, your media will play without restriction once having verified your username against its embedded license. This new kind of ‘friendly’ DRM will verify the person, not the disc, card or file. It won’t matter if you at home, at work, on the move, at a friend’s house or on holiday in the Caribbean. You will have the ability to play any media you own; anywhere you go; on any device you choose.
While other manufacturers are busy trying to reinvent the wheel with optical discs, proprietary online services, outrageous gaming circuits and archaic copy-validating DRM, Microsoft continues to expand and improve the ‘Live’ service, and it’s partners continue to improve the devices that use it. As time goes on, more and more companies will be brought into the platform to offer their own compatible devices, products and services delivered through the ‘Live’ infrastructure. Ironically, companies such as Sony may actually be forced to sign on to Microsoft’s platform simply to survive as a competitor. Proprietary devices and storage such as the PS3, PSP, MemoryStick and Blu-Ray will become obsolete as Sony is forced to create new products that meet the compatibility needs of the infrastructure. To survive the next 100 years in this globalized digital empire, it will take much more than know-how and experience to succeed. What is needed is a change in attitude and the understanding that no individual company, regardless of how big it is, can hope to compete single-handedly against an infrastructure that: provides customers with freedom and choice; gives companies a solid platform to sell their products and services to millions of consumers; and creates a universal data standard that all of our devices can use regardless of what we buy, where we use them, and what we want to do with them. That is what the ‘X’ generation is all about, and it’s just around the corner.
