Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter keeps issuing notes and reports to investors with sensational predictions. In addition to forecasting the arrival of a Wii HD next year, a 200+ page report on the future of the video game industry predicts that the Xbox 360 will fall into a third place worldwide. Pachter believes Sony will manage to push PlayStation 3 into a second place thanks to its built-in Blu-ray Disc playback capabilities and Xbox 360's poor performance in Japan.
"We expect the dominant console at the end of the this cycle to be the Wii, as we think that the console's low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions will provide it with a competitive advantage over the next two years. We expect Nintendo to sustain this competitive advantage by introducing a high definition version of the Wii, perhaps as early as the end of 2010, in order to convert its large installed base into true 'next generation' households," Pachter said.
"We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony's victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015. Although Microsoft's Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan."
